Welcome back everyone and I trust that you all relaxed and enjoyed the Christmas and New Year break with family and friends. Those I’ve spoken with since returning are expressing optimism for 2018.
Certainly, the Australian Government’s latest employment data was a positive start to the year. Jobs growth only occurs when employers feel confident about their future pipeline of orders, and economic conditions. According to the ABC: “Australia's jobs boom has extended to its 15th consecutive month growth, the longest unbroken period of growth
recorded by the Australian Bureau of Statistics".
Key points:
- Around 400,000 jobs have been created in the past 12 months
- Unemployment rate nudges up to 5.5% as more people are encouraged to look for work
- Part-time job growth outpaces full-time work, driving down average hours worked
- In seasonally adjusted terms, 35,000 new jobs were added in December, well ahead of the median economist forecast of 15,000.
The downside to this however, is that wage increases have been kept to such low levels that many are struggling to meet the unending raft of annual increases in governments’ taxes, tolls, utility charges (electricity, gas, water) and private heath funds. The Reserve Bank is expected to keep interest rates on hold for the foreseeable future against a tenuously improving economy.
For New Zealand, according to the OECD: “Economic growth should increase to over 3% in 2018-19, reflecting stronger investment and exports. Capacity constraints, high profitability, low financing costs, housing shortages and government demand should support investment, while agricultural exports should recover following adverse weather and temporary price weakness. Fiscal policy is to become expansionary in 2018-19, reflecting both measures retained from the May 2017 budget and the new government’s plans to increase government consumption, investment and transfer payments.”
Therefore, between Australia and New Zealand, there are reasons to be optimistic about the economic growth, though not too bullish. It seems more like a ‘steady as she goes’ approach to keep confidence and investment priming the economy. There is no certainty that we have any economic resilience built into the system yet, so any unexpected event could easily challenge the incremental gains made to date.
IPWEA may be a bellwether organisation, as we have several new initiatives to be launched for members this year. If each of them are successful they will add incrementally to our surplus and we will be rebuilding our economic resilience. If any of these new offerings stall or fail to get membership support, it will create a financial setback.
The results are just in from the membership Beaton Survey that was issued at the end of last year. We’re pretty pleased the positive ratings members gave us, and will focus on those areas of improvements that were identified. We will provide a special report to member by way of feedback once the Board has considered the findings at its 23 February meeting. The areas that IPWEA excelled at were: ‘value’ and ‘likelihood to recommend.’ 87% of members rated IPWEA as ‘good’ or ‘excellent’ with 90% ‘expected to renew their membership.’
Most encouraging was that: “85% ranked IPWEA as ‘delivering on its promises’ of what it should do for me (as a member).”
When taken as a dipstick of the economy, and IPWEA’s performance, there seems substance to be positive for 2018.
Robert FullerCEO, IPWEA