John
Interesting question about the Baby Boomer effect. I think part of the answer started to show up in the mid 1990's with young drivers.
For example, here in Blacktown the involvement of alcohol in fatal crashes for 17-25 year old drivers (3 year rolling avge) began to decline from 1996 and staibilised in about 2005.
Also, the towaway and casualty crash rate overall began to decline in 1998, 2 years before the hew Learner and P Plate regulations started.
To add a bit more intrigue to the story, the other changes in Learner hours and P Plate restrictions also do not show a step change i n the crash rate for this age group where alcohol is involved.
And all this improvement is happening with an increase in the number of young drivers in the LGA.
To add more mystery, the crash rate for 30-60 year old drivers peaked beteen 2008-2011.
We have no idea why these trends have occured.
The economic changes have no step change correlation with any of the trends.
Something else is happening that we haven't figured out yet.
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David Tynan
Road Safety Officer
Blacktown City Council
BEROWRA NSW
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Original Message:
Sent: 26-08-2014 04:02
From: John Gould
Subject: Australian Fatalities fall to 5.0/100k population
It's good to see fatalities falling, but just how much of this change is
due to current downturn in economic activity and particularly the
movement of the 'Baby Boomer' population surge into the low accident
stage of life ??
John Gould