Asset Management

Predicting future renewal funding needs

  • 1.  Predicting future renewal funding needs

    Posted 19 September 2017 18:25
    Hi all,

    I was just wondering how many people here can say that they accurately predicted their current asset renewal needs ten years ago, and ​if so, how you managed it?

    It seems to me that it in order to accurately predict future renewal funding requirements we need to know (at the very least) how:
    • assets deteriorate over time;
    • the demand for assets and services will change over time;
    • maintenance and construction methods and costs will change over time.
    I'm not sure how many of those are possible to do with any real accuracy given the rapid pace of technological change.

    Even knowing how assets will deteriorate over time, which should perhaps be the easiest of the three to determine, seems very difficult when construction materials and methods and even the environment in which they exist change over time scales less than their design lives.



    Wayne Eddy
    Strategic Asset Planning Coordinator
    City of Whittlesea

  • 2.  RE: Predicting future renewal funding needs

    Posted 21 September 2017 19:49
    With regard to future anything (except death & taxes) we cannot be certain.
    However, a good start is to carry out research to detrmine the calibration factors for the derterioration of your road network and then use these local facor when prediction future condition.
    This raises the issue of what condition (say average pci or pci by hierarchy etc) is sustainable (economic, environmental and social).
    I have developed a graph of deterioration to any chosen future date of PCI V annual budget, this can be used to make an informed decision of a target PCI.
    I am working on another graph that shows the (I expect) an increase in cost/lowering pCI, if the most environmentally damaging works treatment is removed.
    These graphs can be used by council  or iIn consultation with community, to choose a PCI that is sustainable for theri community.
    Sustainability can then be easly, quickly and cheaply by comparing the actual PCI to Target PCI and should be close to 1.
    Where there is a significant differrence (+/-) the a scenario (achieved Target PCI in x years) can be run to find the budget to required for teh next x years.

  • 3.  RE: Predicting future renewal funding needs

    Posted 25 September 2017 01:12

    Hi Wayne

    Your comments highlight the need to continually review AM Plans to ensure currency. Each year a review will ensure refinement to forecasts for each of the years within the new 10 year timeframe. This will increase accuracy as they approach the 5 year and then 3 year milestones. From the original 10 year out forecast some projects and programs will have been deferred and some may have to come forward. You should however have a lot of confidence as they enter 3 years out - so that investment in detailed planning can be made. As we build knowledge of our assets - the greater the confidence of our predictions.

    Murray Erbs
    Chair NAMS.AU
    0408 941 518