Asset Management

Demand Forecasts

  • 1.  Demand Forecasts

    Posted 13 November 2013 03:34
    Hi, all.  I been researching and giving some thought to Demand Forecasts over the last couple of days.

    Here is the text (below) that I am considering adding to the City of Whittlesea's Asset Management Plans to tick the "Demand Forecast Box" with regard to self reporting against the National Asset Management Assessment Framework. I have looked at a number of published AM plans and most seem only to include a sentence or two that talk very generally about the factors effecting demand and some populations figures, so I believe I am on the right track, but I would be interested hear from anyone who has put more effort into this part of their asset management plans, and if so what sort of information you have included.


    "Although a number of factors including; technological advances, climate change, economic conditions and legislative changes are likely to impact the demand for Council services into the future, given Whittlesea's location on the urban fringe and its current and predicted growth rate, population growth is likely to have far greater effect than any other factor on future demand.

    In the absence of any conflicting information it is reasonable to assume a linear relationship between total population and total demand, and the City of Whittlesea plans for future demand on this basis."


    P.S. If you haven't included a demand forecast in your AMP as yet, feel free to reuse my words in any way you wish.

    -------------------------------------------
    Wayne Eddy
    Strategic Asset Planning Coordinator
    City of Whittlesea
    BUNDOORA MDC VIC
    wayne.eddy@whittlesea.vic.gov.au
    -------------------------------------------
    BlogPageSpacerBlank


  • 2.  RE:Demand Forecasts

    Posted 13 November 2013 08:38
    Hi Wayne

    Now that you've drafted the executive summary, you need to provide some meat on the bones. As a starting point you need to differentiate between the services which you provide and write a short synopsis on each. Lets suppose we include: highways, water, housing, parks and airfields; each is going to have its own profile.

    Under each heading there are two main components but your ES only deals with population growth and you haven't defined that so a table or graph showing it is an essential starting point. After demonstrating the predicted population growth you have to consider whether there will be a growth or decline in the use of each service. Examples would include increased per capita usage of water or (say) growth in traffic on a highway due to the closing of a rail link, or the closure of a major employer. If new industry (including leisure activities) is planned then the need for water will increase along with traffic. Are there any plans for new connections from the airport? Will the demand for social housing go up or down? What land in the area is zoned for development and when?

    Demand forecasting is not just about population; it's just as much about the demand for the service by individuals. Usually there are numbers produced by others which can be adapted to the local environment such as per capita usage of water or the reduction in the occupancy rate of housing.

    Hope this helps
    regards
    Peter

    -------------------------------------------
    Peter Styles
    Kingsbury

    -------------------------------------------






    BlogPageSpacerBlank


  • 3.  RE:Demand Forecasts

    Posted 14 November 2013 08:15
    It does make sense, Peter, but I would still like to know which Councils have managed to include that level of detail in their demand forecasts, and how they've gone about it.  I think you have done a great job of explaining the theory, but how is it being managed in practice?  Has anyone ever followed up to see if their forecasts were accurate?

    Regards,

    -------------------------------------------
    Wayne Eddy
    Strategic Asset Planning Coordinator
    City of Whittlesea
    BUNDOORA MDC VIC
    wayne.eddy@whittlesea.vic.gov.au
    -------------------------------------------






    BlogPageSpacerBlank


  • 4.  RE:Demand Forecasts

    Posted 14 November 2013 08:16
    I think Peter has reinforced the point that the service, the need for the service, changes in its demand and what we use to predict the service (census data) is the important concept. If you don't have service plans, which include forecasts, for all the services provided then it will be difficult to produce an asset management plan that is realistic. But are service the plans the domain of the asset management group?

    Assets may be the liability but the service determines the need. Time to talk to the warm and fuzzy side of the organisation!

    -------------------------------------------
    Ashley Bishop
    Asset Management Officer
    Benalla Rural City Council
    BENALLA VIC

    -------------------------------------------






    BlogPageSpacerBlank


  • 5.  RE:Demand Forecasts

    Posted 17 November 2013 22:17
    Hi Wayne,
    I would like to suggest few ideas on this on what we have done in our asset management plans. For roads, kerbs  footpaths and drains we estimate the property frontage of new properties likely to develop based on the increase population. This will give you the increased road length in future years. There is a excel spread sheet to do this calculation. Other option is to get actual data in increased road lengths over the last 5 years from developments and other sources and extrapolate the trend to future years. This procedure can be applied to Council building as well.

    The spread sheet can be applied to all other assets as well with some modifications.

    I hope this will help for your AM Plans. Please contact me if you need further details.

    -------------------------------------------
    Senaviratna Abeykoon
    Manager Assets
    South Gippsland Shire Council
    LEONGATHA VIC

    -------------------------------------------






    BlogPageSpacerBlank


  • 6.  RE:Demand Forecasts

    Posted 19 November 2013 15:04
    Senaviratna, I like your concept, but have a few questions. Do you average the amount of road etc, across the population first and use that as the incremental increase? Otherwise how do you account for development where there is no residential presence? Do you use census projections for population increase and if so what lengths of trend do you consider? How far do you predict demand and do you have any analysis of those projections? Where buildings/facilities are involved do you/would you use the service provision, that is how many of a resource you have per head of population? I see averaging the asset quantity over the population as a way of accounting for houses with two frontages and industrial estates etc, this could even work in a rural shire where population centres are easier to delineate and the link roads probably won't change. The census is the best demographic information available even if growth spurts commence between census reporting times local knowledge would be a predictor. This exemplifies the need for coordination/cooperation amongst all parts of council. If the service levels for the community have been identified, e.g. one playground/100 children 2-10 years old, predictions can be made based on population growth and decline as appropriate. A statement based around making asset demand predictions based on the above idea would give some soundness to the estimate and is less of a motherhood statement: "Demand Forecast for assets is based on a correlation between demographic information and the determined levels of service. These predictions are made based on the previous two censuses and are published every 5 years." Has anyone done the analysis over the last 10 years? ------------------------------------------- Ashley Bishop Asset Management Officer Benalla Rural City Council BENALLA VIC -------------------------------------------
    BlogPageSpacerBlank


  • 7.  RE:Demand Forecasts

    Posted 25 November 2013 01:10
    Hi, Wayne,

    Sorry for the delay in replying. I was out of the office last few days. Yes, Its exactly what we do.
    The way it works is as follows.
    Get the population increase from demographics in each year. Get the average household size. (Population increase/averageHHsize* Street frontage (m)/1000 (Km)) / (Density*H/side/No). This will give you the number of property frontage increase per year. I have made following assumptions.

    Value           Factor                               Description

    1 Density The average number of residences per property
    20m Street frontage Each new property built will have a street frontage (in metres) of
    2 H/side/No Location of properties on road - both sides
    2 Number of footpaths Each metre of road built will have x m of footpath associated with it
    1 U/G Drains Each metre of road built will have x m of stormwater drain associated with it
    500m Culvert spacing Spacing between major stream culverts
    20 Culvert length length of major stream culvert (m)
    40 number of Signs Signs (approx. x number of signs of various types per new km of road)
    2 K/Channel length of new Kerb and channel is twice that of new roads built
    22 Catchpit No. of catchpits per km of road
    11 Lights No. of street lights per km of road
    3 Bus stop No of bus stops per length of new Km of road

    From this assumption we can get all the assets relating to population increase. We also can get the other facilities like parks, community centres etc. based on the rate of current provision. We do not have to be specific on the location. This is adequate for financial forecasting. If you have established new service levels well these could be used to evaluate number of facilities.

    What we have dome over last 10 years is getting the actual data and found the trend in increase to predict the future needs  based on the trend.

    I hope this information will helpful to you.




    -------------------------------------------
    Senaviratna Abeykoon
    Manager Assets
    South Gippsland Shire Council
    LEONGATHA VIC

    -------------------------------------------






    BlogPageSpacerBlank


  • 8.  RE:Demand Forecasts

    Posted 19 November 2013 15:05
    With your demand forecast process you may want to consider breaking it into two elements, assuming you manage/track both: - services based demand (libraries, community facilities, etc) - infrastructure based demand (roads/drainage etc) While the former may be able to correlate linearly with population growth the latter may not be a direct linear correlation. As population increases and cost of land increases urban consolidation demand becomes more prominent; reducing the direct expansion of assets with increased population as urban areas become more dense and utilise spare capacity in existing infrastructure. As such you may want to consider State Government policies on encouraging urban consolidation and your growth targets/zonings/zoning changes as part of your forecast model. This may yield a lower demand forecast for some base infrastructure depending upon where your area is up to in its relative development/economic life cycle. Integrating your model with planning policies may prove beneficial. Just some thoughts from a by-stander for consideration ------------------------------------------- James Belford -------------------------------------------
    BlogPageSpacerBlank


  • 9.  RE:Demand Forecasts

    Posted 20 November 2013 22:27
    Hi everyone, I am tempted to weigh into this one. There are two factors that we are considering for Roads in particular. The first relates to the expected wear and tear for the roads. In relation to this, the population increase needs to be inflated by the expected increase in vehicles per capita. The Bureau of Stats published figures in 2013 indicating that there was a 15% increase in vehicles over the period from 2006 to 2011. Thus there is an expected 2% per annum increase in road use over and above the population increases. Double check these figures as I am working from memory here.) As Yarra Ranges has low population increases expected but high economic increases relating to tourism, I used the VicRoads estimates for the collector roads. To give an indication of the difference, the Pop increase is expected to be 0.4% whereas VicRoads are forecasting 1% increase. The second factor to be considered, especially for those of us in fringe and rural areas is the increase in road length; this has already been well canvased below. For Yarra Ranges it should be noted that there is limited development but the special charges scheme is leading to a transfer of net length from unselaed to sealed roads. Given the difference in cost of managing sealed vs unsealed roads, there will be a significant impact on costs. ------------------------------------------- Christine Grundy Yarra Ranges Council LILYDALE VIC -------------------------------------------
    BlogPageSpacerBlank


  • 10.  RE:Demand Forecasts

    Posted 28 November 2013 03:17
    Hi all,

    Some of our growth will be through the development of new subdivisions. As such this means new roads, drainage, paths etc. For our Asset management plans, I estimated the length of road, path etc provided through the subdivision as a factor of the number of houses predicted through growth. For example 9,000 homes with 101.3 m2 of road per home. This included half of homes being infill, with less impact on infrastructure.  This provides values for future quantities of roads, paths etc related to subdivisions.

    In terms of other demand and growth factors, a starting point is the amount the City spends on upgrades and new assets rather than renewals. Looking backwards on what has been spent, and forwards for known capital projects, and introducing metrics like traffic growth, I compared the expenditure with the growth forecasts to see what level of 'demand' expenditure could be expected over the long term. I will shortly be preparing an AMP for paths, and this will also look at our forward Path Plan, a plan to provide enhanced path networks to connect to precincts. The Path Plan will provide the perspective for demand for the paths AMP. Likewise there is an assessments process for parks and reserves that is identifying upgrade demands. Actually that is probably a key point: the AMP should be informed by plans or strategies for the provision and upgrade of infrastructure.

    Regards,

    -------------------------------------------
    Doug Bartlett
    Coordinator Asset Management
    City of Mandurah
    MANDURAH WAau

    -------------------------------------------






    BlogPageSpacerBlank


  • 11.  RE:Demand Forecasts

    Posted 01 December 2013 02:48
    I would hope that 'traffic counts' their trends and associated modelling would also by included in your AMP's. And although it is not directly involved in roads, the Census Data from the ABS is invaluable. We can get data on population and the detailed demographics for sub electorate areas. It also includes predictions for up to 20 years. Even more useful to long term AMP strategic planning This is essential in any footpath plan as it with GIS it shows the general type of users in any areas. Critical in setting levels of service especially between simple gravel to high quality commercial area. Where are all the elderly persons located. ? This detailed demographics is even more critical to all other council services. ------------------------------------------- Roger Byrne R B & A PTY LTD ST KILDA WEST VIC -------------------------------------------
    BlogPageSpacerBlank